Zoltar is my NFL football prediction system. It uses a neural network and a type of reinforcement learning. The 2026 season will be starting soon (Wednesday, Sept. 9, 2026). I figured I’d take a look at the 2025 season results, specifically, how well did a person do if they bet on Vegas favorites (or equivalently, underdogs)

Without further ado, for the 2025 regular season:

Count home favorite covers spread = 73
Count home favorite does not cover spread = 80

Count visitor favorite covers spread = 57
Count visitor favorite does not cover spread = 58

During the regular season there were 32 teams * 17 games per team / 2 teams per game = 272 games. The counts add up to 268 which means there were 4 games that were pushes, when the favored team won by exactly the point spread. One game in week 9, one game in week 14, and two games in week 18 (the last week of the regular season).

This data indicates that Vegas favorites do not cover the spread 50% of the time, therefore it’s slightly better to bet on Vegas underdogs, especially visitor underdogs.

However, the counts are so close, I’m pretty sure they’re not statistically significant (I’m so sure, I’m not going to check with a chi-square test or whatever).

I guess these results aren’t surprising. If betting on a favorite or underdog always gave a clear advantage, it would be well known.


One of the fascinating things about Las Vegas is that it’s constantly changing. Vegas clearly sees sports betting as the future of the gambling industry.

Left: The game of Faro was once popular in Las Vegas. This is a photo of people playing Faro at the El Rancho Vegas resort. It looks to be from the late 1940s. Players would bet on one of the 52 cards– Ace of clubs, Two of clubs, . . , King of Spades. The dealer would turn over two cards from the shuffled deck, a winning rank, and a losing rank.

Right: The “El Rancho Vegas” opened in 1941 as the very first resort on The Strip (Las Vegas Blvd). It operated until 1960 when most of the buildings burned down in a mysterious fire (nobody was injured). A second-tier property, the “Palace Station” now occupies the site at the southwest corner of Las Vegas Blvd and Sahara Ave.

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